Semir Apparel (002563): Main Business Performance Exceeds Expected KIDILIZ and Increases Profit Elasticity
The 18-year performance report shows that the main business performance in the weak market environment exceeded expectations. It is expected that the main business income will increase by 20% to $ 14.4 billion in 18 years. After excluding the combined impact of Kidiliz’s consolidation, the main business will realize a net profit of 1.5 billion + per yearUp 35%.
Excluding the one-time accrual of asset impairment losses, the main business realized a net profit scale related to operating activities of $ 1.8 billion.
Looking forward to 19 years, under the continuous improvement of product strength improvement, supply chain efficiency improvement, channel structure optimization and other aspects, Semir casual wear will maintain stable operation.
While maintaining absolute leading height, Balla and TCP, Kidiliz play complementary effects in brand positioning and customer base, and produce synergistic effects in product development, international market operations and global procurement.
It is expected that the main business performance in 19 years can still maintain a double-digit growth, but considering that Kidiliz has not yet reversed its losses, the overall net profit performance may be less than the income.
The current market value is 27.1 billion, corresponding to 19PE15X. It can correctly predict the repair market at the bottom and maintain a highly recommended level.
In 18 years, the main business grew faster than expected, and the negative goodwill generated by Kidiliz caused an increase in non-operating income and increased profit elasticity.
The company realized revenue of 157 in 18 years.
160,000 yuan, an increase of 30 in ten years.
68%; operating profit and net profit attributable to mothers are 2 billion and 16 respectively.
9.3 billion, an increase of 32 each year.
33% and 48.
74%, basic profit income is 0.
Separately, it is estimated that the main business income for 18 years will increase by 20% to 14.4 billion US dollars, and achieve a net profit of 1.5 billion +.
In terms of quarters, the single-quarter revenue of 18Q4 companies increased 49 year-on-year.
38%; net profit attributable to mother increased by 234.
Driven by product strength improvement, supply chain efficiency improvement, channel structure optimization and expansion, the main industry performed better than expected.
1) Revenue: The main business revenue for 18 years is expected to increase by 20% annually to $ 14.4 billion.
Among them, the top of the children’s wear Para brand is solid, with an expected 20% increase in revenue in 18 years; the casual wear business still has a 10% increase in revenue in a weak urban environment; and the e-commerce revenue has increased between 25% and 30%.
In Q4 single season, children’s clothing revenue maintained a growth trend of 20% +. Due to the impact of warm winter and poor terminal demand, casual clothing 武汉夜生活网 actively adjusted the distribution rhythm of the franchise system according to the actual sales situation, resulting in the downgrade of Q4 shipment growth to aDigits.
The growth rate of e-commerce is expected to be between 25% and 30%.
2) Net profit: Excluding the operational substitution and negative goodwill brought about by Kidiliz’s consolidation (expected in the non-operating income account), the main business in 18 years is expected to achieve a net profit of 1.5 billion yuan, an increase of 35%.
If we consider the impact of one-time impairment of fixed assets, investment real estate, long-term investment, and goodwill on net profit after tax, the net profit associated with operating activities in the main business in 18 years reached 1.8 billion US dollars.
Kidiliz’s delivery was completed on October 1, 18, and the synergistic development effect can be expected.
By subdivision, the Kidiliz brand is expected to contribute close to 13 trillion in revenue in 18Q4, the operating performance is expected to be about 46 million, and the negative goodwill generated from mergers and acquisitions is expected to be 1.
800 million, included in non-operating income subjects.
The brand is complementary to Balla’s positioning. In the future, it will integrate synergistic development effects in product development, international market operations and global procurement.
The 18 years of asset impairment provision are extensive and adequate.
For the full year of 18 years, the company expects that the amount of the impairment loss of assets on net profit will be 4.
7.5 billion US dollars, including fixed assets, investment real estate, long-term equity investment, goodwill subjects with a one-time asset impairment provision amounted to 3.
6.8 billion yuan.
The accrued amount of inventory depreciation reserve increased during the period is 5.
65 ppm, an increase of 36% compared with the same period last year, and the accrual is sufficient.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions: The company’s casual wear and children’s wear business is operating steadily with continuous improvement in product power improvement, supply chain efficiency improvement, channel structure optimization and other aspects.
TCP, Kidiliz and Balla brand play complementary roles in brand positioning and customer base, and have integrated value in product development, international market operations and global procurement.
In a weak market environment, the company, as a leader in mass leisure and children’s wear, has a sustainable and stable growth alternative for its main business. However, considering that Kidiliz has not turned a deficit, its 19-year net profit performance may be less than its income. According to the 18-year performance report, the EPS for fine-tuning 2018-2020 is 0.
67 and 0.
75 yuan, the current total market value of 27.1 billion, corresponding to 19PE15X, can accurately predict the repair market at the bottom, maintain the investment rating of “strongly recommended -A”.
Risk warning: terminal consumption continues to weaken, and the risk of increased inventory.